FIRE math in one screen
FIRE works on one equation: savings rate determines time to FI. At 10% savings rate, you need ~51 years to retire. At 25%, you need ~32 years. At 50%, you need ~17 years. At 75%, you need ~7 years. This assumes a 5% real return and a 4% safe withdrawal rate — change those inputs and the numbers shift, but the shape is the same: savings rate is almost everything.
Your FIRE number = annual expenses × 25 (a 4% withdrawal rate). $50,000/year expenses means $1.25M. $80,000/year means $2M. $100,000/year means $2.5M. The trick is calculating "annual expenses" honestly — including healthcare, taxes, replacement of cars and roofs, and reality. Most FIRE plans low-ball expenses by 20%.
The three things the FIRE forums underemphasize
Three execution items that sink more FIRE plans than the savings rate:
- Healthcare bridge to Medicare. A family of three on the ACA at $80k MAGI pays roughly $1,200/month; at $100k MAGI above the subsidy cliff they pay $2,500/month. This alone can delay FIRE by 18–24 months and is often priced at $0 in forum-posted plans.
- Accessing money before 59½. 401(k) and Traditional IRA funds locked up in tax-advantaged accounts need a Roth conversion ladder, 72(t) SEPP, or a meaningful taxable account bridge. Plan the first 5 years of withdrawals from specific sources before you pull the trigger.
- Sequence-of-returns risk is real. A bad first 3 years of retirement at a 4% withdrawal can mathematically end your portfolio by year 25 even with average returns afterward. Keep 5 years of expenses in non-stock assets.
These aren't reasons not to FIRE — they are reasons to plan for 2–3 extra years of work to do FIRE durably.
Coast-FIRE, Barista-FIRE, and the hybrid endgame
Pure FIRE (stop working completely before 50) is hard and rare. Three softer variants work much better for most people:
- Coast-FIRE: Save enough by age X that compounding alone gets you to your FIRE number by age Y without further contributions. Keep working, but stop saving. Example: $500k invested at 30 grows to $2.5M at 57 (7% real return). You have bought freedom from saving pressure.
- Barista-FIRE: Stop full-time work but keep part-time income — often specifically to get subsidized healthcare (Starbucks, Costco, UPS all offer PT benefits). Covers 20–40% of expenses and lets your portfolio grow untouched in the expensive pre-Medicare years.
- Hybrid / one-more-year: Most people who "FIRE" end up doing consulting, teaching, writing, or spot gigs. The income smooths sequence risk and structurally adds 0.5–1.0% to safe withdrawal rates.
If you're scoring 55–75 on this quiz, a hybrid FIRE is probably the most realistic path. Pure FIRE is a spreadsheet; hybrid FIRE is a lifestyle.
What to do with your score
Below 40: Not ready. Focus on savings rate (target 25%+) and the Retirement Savings Calculator. Hit 40 first, then retake this quiz.
40–70: On the path but with plan gaps. Work through the Retirement Readiness Checklist and run your plan through Monte Carlo and Sequence of Returns Risk. Aim for a credible bridge strategy.
70+: You have a real plan. Focus on tax optimization, spousal alignment, and the identity work. Use the Bucket Strategy Calculator and Roth Conversion Calculator to finalize access plans.